{
  "week": "2026-W44",
  "stories": [
    {
      "id": "s01",
      "merge_into": null,
      "human_stakes": {
        "people_affected": 1000,
        "deaths": 0,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "basis": "No one has been killed, injured, displaced or lost services; the stakes are political (a defeated candidate in exile claiming the presidency) and are scored under Consequence. Figure is a nominal minimum."
      },
      "consequence": {
        "jury": [
          {
            "scope": 3,
            "severity": 2,
            "irreversibility": 2,
            "duration": 3,
            "spillover": 2,
            "juror": "humanitarian",
            "rationale": "A challenge to a peaceful transfer of power touches every citizen, though no one is physically harmed yet."
          },
          {
            "scope": 4,
            "severity": 4,
            "irreversibility": 3,
            "duration": 4,
            "spillover": 4,
            "juror": "geopolitical",
            "rationale": "Lula's accusation that the US colluded strains relations with Brazil's largest Western partner."
          },
          {
            "scope": 4,
            "severity": 3,
            "irreversibility": 3,
            "duration": 4,
            "spillover": 3,
            "juror": "historian",
            "rationale": "Contested transfers of power in large democracies tend to be remembered."
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "s02",
      "merge_into": null,
      "human_stakes": {
        "people_affected": 39,
        "deaths": 26,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "basis": "Saudi airstrikes on a market in Al Hazm (14 killed, 10 wounded) and homes in Taiz (12 killed, 3 wounded), per AP and Xinhua."
      },
      "consequence": {
        "jury": [
          {
            "scope": 2,
            "severity": 4,
            "irreversibility": 5,
            "duration": 3,
            "spillover": 2,
            "juror": "humanitarian",
            "rationale": "Civilian deaths are irreversible for the families affected."
          },
          {
            "scope": 3,
            "severity": 3,
            "irreversibility": 2,
            "duration": 3,
            "spillover": 3,
            "juror": "geopolitical",
            "rationale": "Renewed Saudi strikes risk widening the Yemen conflict."
          },
          {
            "scope": 2,
            "severity": 2,
            "irreversibility": 3,
            "duration": 2,
            "spillover": 2,
            "juror": "historian",
            "rationale": "One of many escalations in a long war."
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "s03",
      "merge_into": null,
      "human_stakes": {
        "people_affected": 40,
        "deaths": 15,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "basis": "Israeli airstrikes on tents and buildings in Khan Yunis, Rafah and Gaza City killed 15 people this week, including children, with many wounded (portal sources)."
      },
      "consequence": {
        "jury": [
          {
            "scope": 3,
            "severity": 4,
            "irreversibility": 5,
            "duration": 4,
            "spillover": 3,
            "juror": "humanitarian",
            "rationale": "Continued strikes on displaced people deepen an ongoing humanitarian catastrophe."
          },
          {
            "scope": 3,
            "severity": 3,
            "irreversibility": 3,
            "duration": 4,
            "spillover": 4,
            "juror": "geopolitical",
            "rationale": "Sustained violence keeps the wider regional crisis unresolved."
          },
          {
            "scope": 3,
            "severity": 3,
            "irreversibility": 4,
            "duration": 4,
            "spillover": 3,
            "juror": "historian",
            "rationale": "Part of a conflict history will treat as defining for the region."
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "s04",
      "merge_into": null,
      "human_stakes": {
        "people_affected": 1000000,
        "deaths": 0,
        "confidence": "low",
        "basis": "A general strike across Italy, protests in 34 German cities, riots in Zurich and Basel, youth protests in The Hague and Luxembourg and a third weekend of French student protests; participation figures not reported."
      },
      "consequence": {
        "jury": [
          {
            "scope": 3,
            "severity": 2,
            "irreversibility": 1,
            "duration": 2,
            "spillover": 2,
            "juror": "humanitarian",
            "rationale": "Cost-of-living pressure is real but protests rarely cause lasting harm."
          },
          {
            "scope": 4,
            "severity": 3,
            "irreversibility": 2,
            "duration": 3,
            "spillover": 3,
            "juror": "geopolitical",
            "rationale": "Simultaneous unrest in several EU states can shift national politics."
          },
          {
            "scope": 3,
            "severity": 2,
            "irreversibility": 2,
            "duration": 3,
            "spillover": 3,
            "juror": "historian",
            "rationale": "Could mark a turning point if it grows; uncertain so far."
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "s05",
      "merge_into": null,
      "human_stakes": {
        "people_affected": 1000,
        "deaths": 0,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "basis": "No direct material harm reported beyond three protesters detained; the stakes are institutional and are scored under Consequence. Figure is a nominal minimum."
      },
      "consequence": {
        "jury": [
          {
            "scope": 2,
            "severity": 2,
            "irreversibility": 2,
            "duration": 3,
            "spillover": 2,
            "juror": "humanitarian",
            "rationale": "Rule-of-law disputes affect rights indirectly rather than immediately."
          },
          {
            "scope": 3,
            "severity": 3,
            "irreversibility": 3,
            "duration": 4,
            "spillover": 4,
            "juror": "geopolitical",
            "rationale": "A tribunal described as facing a coup weakens EU rule-of-law norms."
          },
          {
            "scope": 3,
            "severity": 3,
            "irreversibility": 3,
            "duration": 4,
            "spillover": 3,
            "juror": "historian",
            "rationale": "A significant chapter in Poland's long judicial crisis."
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "s06",
      "merge_into": null,
      "human_stakes": {
        "people_affected": 1000000,
        "deaths": 21,
        "confidence": "low",
        "basis": "A drone strike in Nyala killed 21 and injured 40; RSF drone strikes on power stations cut electricity across south-east Sudan (number affected not reported; estimate)."
      },
      "consequence": {
        "jury": [
          {
            "scope": 4,
            "severity": 5,
            "irreversibility": 5,
            "duration": 4,
            "spillover": 4,
            "juror": "humanitarian",
            "rationale": "Attacks on civilians and power infrastructure compound one of the world's worst humanitarian crises."
          },
          {
            "scope": 3,
            "severity": 3,
            "irreversibility": 3,
            "duration": 4,
            "spillover": 3,
            "juror": "geopolitical",
            "rationale": "Prolonged war in Sudan destabilises the Horn of Africa and the Sahel."
          },
          {
            "scope": 3,
            "severity": 4,
            "irreversibility": 4,
            "duration": 4,
            "spillover": 3,
            "juror": "historian",
            "rationale": "The Sudanese war is likely to be seen as a major humanitarian disaster of the decade."
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "s07",
      "merge_into": null,
      "human_stakes": {
        "people_affected": 1000,
        "deaths": 0,
        "confidence": "low",
        "basis": "Binance confirms US$6.3 billion stolen, attributed by the FBI to North Korea's Lazarus Group; no figures on affected customers reported."
      },
      "consequence": {
        "jury": [
          {
            "scope": 2,
            "severity": 2,
            "irreversibility": 3,
            "duration": 2,
            "spillover": 2,
            "juror": "humanitarian",
            "rationale": "Direct harm to individuals is unclear."
          },
          {
            "scope": 3,
            "severity": 3,
            "irreversibility": 4,
            "duration": 3,
            "spillover": 4,
            "juror": "geopolitical",
            "rationale": "The largest crypto theft in history funds a sanctioned state's weapons programmes."
          },
          {
            "scope": 2,
            "severity": 2,
            "irreversibility": 3,
            "duration": 3,
            "spillover": 3,
            "juror": "historian",
            "rationale": "A notable record, but crypto thefts recur."
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "s08",
      "merge_into": null,
      "human_stakes": {
        "people_affected": 100000,
        "deaths": 3,
        "confidence": "high",
        "basis": "Nearly 100,000 people evacuated in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha ahead of Cyclone Arnab; at least three killed at landfall (Reuters, DNA)."
      },
      "consequence": {
        "jury": [
          {
            "scope": 3,
            "severity": 3,
            "irreversibility": 2,
            "duration": 2,
            "spillover": 2,
            "juror": "humanitarian",
            "rationale": "Large evacuation, low loss of life thanks to early warning."
          },
          {
            "scope": 2,
            "severity": 2,
            "irreversibility": 1,
            "duration": 2,
            "spillover": 2,
            "juror": "geopolitical",
            "rationale": "Limited regional economic impact."
          },
          {
            "scope": 1,
            "severity": 2,
            "irreversibility": 1,
            "duration": 1,
            "spillover": 1,
            "juror": "historian",
            "rationale": "A seasonal cyclone, not historically unusual."
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "s09",
      "merge_into": null,
      "human_stakes": {
        "people_affected": 1000,
        "deaths": 0,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "basis": "An inconclusive election causes no direct material harm this week; its stakes are political and are scored under Consequence. Figure is a nominal minimum."
      },
      "consequence": {
        "jury": [
          {
            "scope": 2,
            "severity": 2,
            "irreversibility": 2,
            "duration": 3,
            "spillover": 3,
            "juror": "humanitarian",
            "rationale": "Indirect humanitarian stakes through the next government's war policy."
          },
          {
            "scope": 4,
            "severity": 3,
            "irreversibility": 3,
            "duration": 4,
            "spillover": 4,
            "juror": "geopolitical",
            "rationale": "Israel's next government shapes Gaza, Lebanon and Iran policy."
          },
          {
            "scope": 3,
            "severity": 3,
            "irreversibility": 3,
            "duration": 3,
            "spillover": 3,
            "juror": "historian",
            "rationale": "An inconclusive election; significance depends on what follows."
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "s10",
      "merge_into": null,
      "human_stakes": {
        "people_affected": 5000,
        "deaths": 27,
        "confidence": "low",
        "basis": "Jordanian airstrikes in southern Syria after the Karak church shooting killed 7 civilians and 20 alleged militants; Syria closed the Nasib border crossing to passenger and commercial traffic."
      },
      "consequence": {
        "jury": [
          {
            "scope": 2,
            "severity": 4,
            "irreversibility": 4,
            "duration": 2,
            "spillover": 3,
            "juror": "humanitarian",
            "rationale": "Civilian deaths and a closed border hurt local communities."
          },
          {
            "scope": 3,
            "severity": 3,
            "irreversibility": 2,
            "duration": 2,
            "spillover": 4,
            "juror": "geopolitical",
            "rationale": "Uncoordinated cross-border strikes strain Jordan–Syria relations."
          },
          {
            "scope": 2,
            "severity": 3,
            "irreversibility": 2,
            "duration": 2,
            "spillover": 3,
            "juror": "historian",
            "rationale": "Likely a footnote unless it escalates."
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "s11",
      "merge_into": null,
      "human_stakes": {
        "people_affected": 10000000,
        "deaths": 0,
        "confidence": "low",
        "basis": "Effects of the Iran war this week: a tanker fire in the Strait of Hormuz (25 crew rescued), legal threats against shipping, a cruise ship stranded by fuel costs (203 passengers) and a Bank of Canada rate rise blamed on oil prices; estimate of people facing higher costs."
      },
      "consequence": {
        "jury": [
          {
            "scope": 4,
            "severity": 3,
            "irreversibility": 2,
            "duration": 3,
            "spillover": 4,
            "juror": "humanitarian",
            "rationale": "Fuel and price shocks spread hardship far beyond the war zone."
          },
          {
            "scope": 5,
            "severity": 4,
            "irreversibility": 3,
            "duration": 4,
            "spillover": 5,
            "juror": "geopolitical",
            "rationale": "Disruption at Hormuz moves energy markets and interest rates worldwide."
          },
          {
            "scope": 4,
            "severity": 4,
            "irreversibility": 3,
            "duration": 4,
            "spillover": 4,
            "juror": "historian",
            "rationale": "An energy shock tied to a regional war is the kind of event history records."
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "s12",
      "merge_into": null,
      "human_stakes": {
        "people_affected": 100,
        "deaths": 0,
        "confidence": "high",
        "basis": "Figure skating results at Skate Canada International; no one harmed."
      },
      "consequence": {
        "jury": [
          {
            "scope": 1,
            "severity": 1,
            "irreversibility": 1,
            "duration": 1,
            "spillover": 1,
            "juror": "humanitarian",
            "rationale": "No humanitarian stakes."
          },
          {
            "scope": 1,
            "severity": 1,
            "irreversibility": 1,
            "duration": 1,
            "spillover": 1,
            "juror": "geopolitical",
            "rationale": "No geopolitical stakes."
          },
          {
            "scope": 1,
            "severity": 1,
            "irreversibility": 1,
            "duration": 1,
            "spillover": 1,
            "juror": "historian",
            "rationale": "Sports results are rarely historic."
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "s13",
      "merge_into": "s11"
    },
    {
      "id": "s14",
      "merge_into": "s11"
    },
    {
      "id": "s15",
      "merge_into": null,
      "human_stakes": {
        "people_affected": 2,
        "deaths": 0,
        "confidence": "high",
        "basis": "British far-right activist Tommy Robinson convicted of harassing two journalists."
      },
      "consequence": {
        "jury": [
          {
            "scope": 1,
            "severity": 2,
            "irreversibility": 2,
            "duration": 2,
            "spillover": 1,
            "juror": "humanitarian",
            "rationale": "Affects two victims directly."
          },
          {
            "scope": 2,
            "severity": 1,
            "irreversibility": 2,
            "duration": 2,
            "spillover": 2,
            "juror": "geopolitical",
            "rationale": "Modest effect on UK politics."
          },
          {
            "scope": 1,
            "severity": 1,
            "irreversibility": 2,
            "duration": 2,
            "spillover": 1,
            "juror": "historian",
            "rationale": "A minor legal milestone."
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "s16",
      "merge_into": null,
      "human_stakes": {
        "people_affected": 39,
        "deaths": 17,
        "confidence": "high",
        "basis": "A Russian drone strike on Dnipro railway station killed 15 and injured 14; a missile strike in Chernihiv killed two teenage girls and hospitalised eight."
      },
      "consequence": {
        "jury": [
          {
            "scope": 2,
            "severity": 4,
            "irreversibility": 5,
            "duration": 3,
            "spillover": 2,
            "juror": "humanitarian",
            "rationale": "Deadly strikes on civilians at a transport hub."
          },
          {
            "scope": 3,
            "severity": 3,
            "irreversibility": 3,
            "duration": 3,
            "spillover": 3,
            "juror": "geopolitical",
            "rationale": "Continues the pattern of attacks on Ukrainian cities."
          },
          {
            "scope": 2,
            "severity": 3,
            "irreversibility": 3,
            "duration": 3,
            "spillover": 2,
            "juror": "historian",
            "rationale": "One of many such attacks in a long war."
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "s17",
      "merge_into": null,
      "human_stakes": {
        "people_affected": 9000000,
        "deaths": 0,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "basis": "Archive of Our Own, with roughly 9 million registered users, is offline after a cyberattack and expects to be restored in 2–4 weeks; no user data compromised."
      },
      "consequence": {
        "jury": [
          {
            "scope": 3,
            "severity": 1,
            "irreversibility": 1,
            "duration": 1,
            "spillover": 1,
            "juror": "humanitarian",
            "rationale": "Many users affected, but only by temporary loss of a hobby site."
          },
          {
            "scope": 1,
            "severity": 1,
            "irreversibility": 1,
            "duration": 1,
            "spillover": 1,
            "juror": "geopolitical",
            "rationale": "No geopolitical effect."
          },
          {
            "scope": 1,
            "severity": 1,
            "irreversibility": 1,
            "duration": 1,
            "spillover": 1,
            "juror": "historian",
            "rationale": "Unlikely to be remembered."
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "s18",
      "merge_into": null,
      "human_stakes": {
        "people_affected": 1000,
        "deaths": 0,
        "confidence": "low",
        "basis": "Canada invests up to C$1.6 billion in AI company Cohere; no direct human effect this week."
      },
      "consequence": {
        "jury": [
          {
            "scope": 1,
            "severity": 1,
            "irreversibility": 2,
            "duration": 3,
            "spillover": 2,
            "juror": "humanitarian",
            "rationale": "No direct humanitarian stakes."
          },
          {
            "scope": 2,
            "severity": 2,
            "irreversibility": 2,
            "duration": 3,
            "spillover": 2,
            "juror": "geopolitical",
            "rationale": "A state stake in a national AI champion signals industrial policy."
          },
          {
            "scope": 2,
            "severity": 2,
            "irreversibility": 2,
            "duration": 3,
            "spillover": 2,
            "juror": "historian",
            "rationale": "A small part of the AI boom story."
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "s19",
      "merge_into": null,
      "human_stakes": {
        "people_affected": 1000,
        "deaths": 0,
        "confidence": "low",
        "basis": "DoorDash announces intent to acquire Instacart for $17 billion in late 2027; no direct effect yet."
      },
      "consequence": {
        "jury": [
          {
            "scope": 2,
            "severity": 1,
            "irreversibility": 2,
            "duration": 2,
            "spillover": 1,
            "juror": "humanitarian",
            "rationale": "Future effects on gig workers are speculative."
          },
          {
            "scope": 2,
            "severity": 2,
            "irreversibility": 3,
            "duration": 3,
            "spillover": 2,
            "juror": "geopolitical",
            "rationale": "Consolidation in US delivery markets."
          },
          {
            "scope": 1,
            "severity": 1,
            "irreversibility": 2,
            "duration": 2,
            "spillover": 1,
            "juror": "historian",
            "rationale": "A routine corporate deal."
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "s20",
      "merge_into": null,
      "human_stakes": {
        "people_affected": 6,
        "deaths": 6,
        "confidence": "high",
        "basis": "Six people killed in a helicopter crash near Joshimath, Uttarakhand."
      },
      "consequence": {
        "jury": [
          {
            "scope": 1,
            "severity": 4,
            "irreversibility": 5,
            "duration": 1,
            "spillover": 1,
            "juror": "humanitarian",
            "rationale": "A tragedy for six families."
          },
          {
            "scope": 1,
            "severity": 1,
            "irreversibility": 1,
            "duration": 1,
            "spillover": 1,
            "juror": "geopolitical",
            "rationale": "No wider effect."
          },
          {
            "scope": 1,
            "severity": 1,
            "irreversibility": 1,
            "duration": 1,
            "spillover": 1,
            "juror": "historian",
            "rationale": "A local accident."
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "s21",
      "merge_into": "s04"
    },
    {
      "id": "s22",
      "merge_into": null,
      "human_stakes": {
        "people_affected": 100,
        "deaths": 0,
        "confidence": "high",
        "basis": "Horse racing results at the Breeders' Cup; no one harmed."
      },
      "consequence": {
        "jury": [
          {
            "scope": 1,
            "severity": 1,
            "irreversibility": 1,
            "duration": 1,
            "spillover": 1,
            "juror": "humanitarian",
            "rationale": "No humanitarian stakes."
          },
          {
            "scope": 1,
            "severity": 1,
            "irreversibility": 1,
            "duration": 1,
            "spillover": 1,
            "juror": "geopolitical",
            "rationale": "No geopolitical stakes."
          },
          {
            "scope": 1,
            "severity": 1,
            "irreversibility": 1,
            "duration": 1,
            "spillover": 1,
            "juror": "historian",
            "rationale": "Sports results are rarely historic."
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "s23",
      "merge_into": "s04"
    },
    {
      "id": "s24",
      "merge_into": "s22"
    },
    {
      "id": "s25",
      "merge_into": null,
      "human_stakes": {
        "people_affected": 100,
        "deaths": 0,
        "confidence": "high",
        "basis": "WNBA Finals results; no one harmed."
      },
      "consequence": {
        "jury": [
          {
            "scope": 1,
            "severity": 1,
            "irreversibility": 1,
            "duration": 1,
            "spillover": 1,
            "juror": "humanitarian",
            "rationale": "No humanitarian stakes."
          },
          {
            "scope": 1,
            "severity": 1,
            "irreversibility": 1,
            "duration": 1,
            "spillover": 1,
            "juror": "geopolitical",
            "rationale": "No geopolitical stakes."
          },
          {
            "scope": 1,
            "severity": 1,
            "irreversibility": 1,
            "duration": 1,
            "spillover": 1,
            "juror": "historian",
            "rationale": "Sports results are rarely historic."
          }
        ]
      }
    }
  ]
}