Measuring Regional Prosperity: Greggs Bakery as an Unconventional Indicator of Economic Disparity in the UK

How do politicians know if a local region is doing well economically? This is a question with ethical weight, since it will influence political decisions relating to funding and investments, which has a very real effect on the lives and happiness of the population.

There are a number of different metrics that can be used to paint a picture of the economic success of each region, but are the current metrics used sufficient? When it comes to sourcing data for policy level decisions relating to regional economic growth, where should we look? Political statisticians in the UK ponder this question increasingly as disparity among poor and prosperous regions reaches an all time high in the British Isles.

GVA

One statistic commonly used to describe the economic situation in a given region is the GVA, which is a measure of the value of goods and services emerging from a localised area. 

Graph 1, below, shows the GVA per head in each UK region. I have also included the Yugozapaden region in Bulgaria as an interesting comparison. As expected, most regions in the UK lag significantly behind London. However, Northern Ireland, Wales and the North East lag so significantly that they have now been surpassed by Bulgaria, Europe’s 10th smallest economy.

With almost a perfect correlation, the productivity of jobs and workers in the UK matches the GVA per region, as seen below in Graph 2. This suggests a close relationship between productivity and economic performance, as is often implied by the UKs policy proposals.

While GVA and productivity are the two measures most often used by the policy makers seeking to solve the economic disparity issue in the UK, what if these data metrics are not sufficient to develop a full understanding of regional prosperity? 

What if we could reach further outside the realms of the conventional to gain a more thorough picture of regional prosperity? 

In the modern age, the ocean of data at our fingertips is vast and deep, and therefore I would like to propose some further metrics which may illuminate the UK a little clearer for those who rarely leave the confines of the M25.

The Waitrose Index. 

Waitrose, being the UK’s most expensive supermarket chain, is a fairly good indicator of regional property. Relying on market economics for this measurement, an area where Waitrose can remain open will naturally be an area where the residents are enjoying health, wellness and prosperity. The map below – showing locations of Waitrose supermarkets – echos what we already know from the GVA discussion above, with stores densely clustered around the south east.

The Greggs Density Index. 

Greggs is a distinctly working class bakery, enjoyed by certain demographics more than others. Looking at the number of Greggs per person cleaves a clear divide between the north and the south, the rich and the poor, and the healthy and the unhealthy. The Greggs density index may be a pivotal proxy measure of disparities in lifestyle, health, and therefore prosperity across the UK.

With any data set, confirming the reliability of the data is a prerequisite before any hypothesises can be tested, however policy makers must be careful to not “over-train” the data in a way that fits their preexisting notions. This goes beyond being over selective of data points within a set, but involves limiting the types of data that we are willing to consider before reaching a conclusion.

As is the case in computing, engineering and business management, data is key when driving decision making.